Assessing the glacier projection uncertainties from a catchment perspective using the OGGM model
Uncertainties are a major problem in glacier modelling, especially at regional scales such as Patagonia, where we do not have much data to validate our results. Previous studies have shown that model uncertainties (including boundary conditions such as climate or calibration strategy) are the main source of uncertainty until mid-century. At the same time, however, studies show that “the projected evolution is only slightly affected by the choice of climate data products used in the past and the spatial resolution of future climate projections”. To disentangle the future of glaciers in Patagonia and the relative importance of the different sources of uncertainty from a catchment perspective, we developed an experiment to analyse the impact of different glacier outlines volume datasets, climate datasets, GCMs, SSPs, and bias correction methods. This a part of my PhD thesis
