Publications

2026

Riverine Biogeochemical Exports From Major Watersheds to the Northwest Patagonian Estuarine Network

Fox, S., León-Muñoz, J., Reid, B., Astorga-Roine, A., Aguayo, R., Moreno-Meynard, P., Blanchet, L. and Butman, D. E. (2026).

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Melt-driven freshwater inputs as potential drivers of harmful algal blooms: evidence from a diatom bloom in Northwestern Patagonia

León-Muñoz, J., Reid, B., Iriarte, J. L., Mardones, J., Aguayo, R., Astorga-Roine, A., García-Tuñon, W., Soto, D. and Garreaud, R. (2026).

Scientific Reports

Global mapping of lake-terminating glaciers

Steiner, J., Armstrong, W., Kochtitzky, W., McNabb, R., Aguayo, R., … and Zheng, W. (2026).

Earth System Science Data

Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first centuryCovered by 250+ media outlets

Van Tricht, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M., Rounce, D., Schuster, L., Aguayo, R., Schmitt, P., Maussion, F., Tober, B. and Farinotti, D. (2026).

Nature Climate Change

Resolving short-term meteorological variability amplifies projected glacier loss and sea-level rise

Van Tricht, L., Huss, M., Zekollari, H., Aguayo, R., van Tiel, M., von der Esch, A., Beer, J. and Farinotti, D. (2026).

Nature Communications

Reduced future summer water availability in the Tien Shan due to glacier wastage

Van Tricht, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M., van Tiel, M., Vanderkelen, I., Aguayo, R., Compagno, L., Thiery, W., Huybrechts, P. and Farinotti, D. (2026).

Water Resources Research

2025

Hybrid glacio-hydrological modelling reveals contrasting runoff changes in Western Patagonia over the 21st century

Aguayo, R., Zekollari, H., Hanus, S., Baez-Villanueva, O., Mendoza, P. and Maussion, F. (2025).

Earth’s Future

Glacio-hydrological changes along the Andes over the first half of the 21st Century

Caro, A., Condom, T., Rabatel, A., Aguayo, R. and Champollion, N. (2025).

Scientific Reports

QFuego-Patagonia: a comprehensive dataset and review of Southern South America’s glaciers

Farías-Barahona, D., Schaefer, M., Braun, M., Temme, F., Fürst, J., …, Aguayo, R., … and Harrison, S. (2025).

Journal of Glaciology

2024

PatagoniaMet: A multi-source hydrometeorological dataset for Western Patagonia (40–56°S)PatagoniaMet >4k on Zenodo

Aguayo, R., León-Muñoz, J., Aguayo, M., Baez-Villanueva, O., Fernandez, A., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. and Jacques-Coper, M. (2024).

Scientific Data

Unravelling the sources of uncertainty in glacier runoff projections in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S)

Aguayo, R., Maussion, F., Ultee, L., Mackay, J., Caro, A., Schuster, L., Fernandez, A., Schaefer, M., León-Muñoz, J. and Aguayo, M. (2024).

The Cryosphere

Hydrographic shifts in coastal waters reflect climate-driven changes in hydrological regimes across Northwestern Patagonia

León-Muñoz, J., Aguayo, R., Corredor, A., Tapia, F., Iriarte, J. L., Reid, B. and Soto, D. (2024).

Scientific Reports

Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observationsEGU publication highlight

Zekollari, H., Huss, M., Schuster, L., Maussion, F., Rounce, D. R., Aguayo, R., Champollion, N., Compagno, L., Hugonnet, R., Marzeion, B., Mojtabavi, S. and Farinotti, D. (2024).

The Cryosphere

2023

Landscape dependency of salmon farming hatcheries under climate change

León-Muñoz, J., Aguayo, R., Echeverría, C., Nimptsch, J., Wölfl, S., Avendaño-Herrera, R., Simon, J. and Soto, D. (2023).

Climate Risk Management

2021

Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 modelsTop 100 in Earth Science

Aguayo, R., León-Muñoz, J., Garreaud, R. and Montecinos, A. (2021).

Scientific Reports

Climate and land cover trends affecting freshwater inputs to a fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

León-Muñoz, J., Aguayo, R., Marcé, R., Catalán, N., Wölfl, S., Nimptsch, J., Arismendi, I., Contreras, C., Soto, D. and Miranda, A. (2021).

Frontiers in Marine Science

2019

The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia

Aguayo, R., León-Muñoz, J., Vargas, J., Montecinos, A., Garreaud, R., Urbina, M., Soto, D. and Iriarte, J. L. (2019).

Climatic Change

In Review

2026

Glacier loss amplifies streamflow droughts and water stress in the Andes

Aguayo, R., Zekollari, H., Bolibar, J., van Tiel, M., Ayala, A., Van Tricht, L. and Ultee, L. (2026).

Nature Communications (in review)

Recent advances and challenges in process-based hydrological modeling over the Andes: A review

Mendoza, P. A., Toum, E., Wongchuig, S., Condom, T., Barco, J., Drenkhan, F. and Aguayo, R. (2026).

WIREs Water (in review)

Irrigation buffers glacier loss

Ponds, M., Aguayo, R., Yao, Y., Thiery, W. and Zekollari, H. (2026).

Nature Communications (in review)

Long-term drying enhances El Niño impacts on Patagonian aquaculture

León-Muñoz, J., Soto, D., Aguayo, R. and Garreaud, R. (2026).

Environmental Research Letters (in review)

2025

Early detection of anthropogenic impacts on headwater streams in Patagonia through hydrological signatures metrics

Moreno-Meynard, P., Aguayo, R., Astorga-Roine, A., Somos, M., Uribe, L. and Reid, B. (2025).

Hydrological Sciences Journal (in review)